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A stochastic model for piping failure frequency analysis using OPDE data

An abstract of the article published in:
Journal of Engineering for Gas Turbines and Power (Vol. 131, September 2009)
New York, New York, USA
September 2009

Prepared by:
Jovica Riznic
Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC)
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada


The accurate estimation of piping failure frequency is an important task to support the probabilistic risk assessment and risk-informed in-service inspection of nuclear power plants. Although probabilistic models have been reported in the literature to analyze the piping failure frequency, this paper proposes a stochastic point process model that incorporates both a time dependent trend and plant-specific (or cohort) effects on the failure rate. A likelihood based statistical method is proposed for estimating the model parameters.  A case study is presented to analyze the Class 1 pipe failure data given in the OPDE.

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